Copper prices surged to an all-time high in January after a tumultuous 2025.
Although there was some panic buying in the sector at a couple of points last year, prices began to trade on market fundamentals in the third and fourth quarters, driven by significant supply disruptions.
At this year’s Vancouver Resource Investment Conference (VRIC), Darrell Thomas, host of VRIC Media and the Money Levels Show, led a panel focused on the red metal’s 2025 moves and where it may be headed in 2026 and beyond.
Joining Thomas were Coppernico Metals (TSX:COPR,OTCQB:CPPMF) CEO and Chair Ivan Bebek; Lobo Tiggre, CEO of IndependentSpeculator.com; and Rick Rule, proprietor of Rule Investment Media.
The math supports copper demand
The last several years have brought a narrowing gap between copper supply and demand.
The panelists noted that newer industries such as artificial intelligence (AI), electric vehicles (EVs) and the energy transition are driving additional demand in an already tight market.
Rule noted that, regardless of whether demand from new technologies declines, underlying base-level consumption will be driven by urbanization and the growth of the middle class in developing nations.
“It isn’t about Teslas. It’s about the fact that a billion people on Earth have no access to primary electricity,’ he said.
‘It’s about the fact that one of the greatest leaps forward in humankind was raising 500 million Chinese from rural penury to middle-class status,” Rule told the audience at VRIC.
He explained that it’s a matter of simple arithmetic, suggesting that the amount of copper that it will take to get everyone to a better standard of living is going to be massive.
“It’s inescapable, it’s truly inescapable,” Rule said.
Bebek noted that it’s not just the developing world; there are also significant projects underway in the US.
“One of the biggest uses of copper is in development, and if you travel around the US, everywhere there is a lot of modernization. Airports and infrastructure to meet the new requirements, and everyone’s building is cleaner. So that’s going to be steady,” he said. Bebek also noted that tech demand is inevitable even if there is some deceleration.
“Baseline demand is built in. Data center demand may be influenced by copper prices, but I don’t think it matters. I think copper demand grows 2 percent compounded without data centers,” Rule added.
Copper supply facing challenges
Meanwhile, steady copper demand growth is running up against a stressed supply chain.
Experts have been calling for a structural copper supply deficit for years, largely due to the absence of new mining operations, but in 2025, the industry faced significant supply-side disruptions.
In May, underground activities at Ivanhoe Mines’ (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF) Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo were suspended after water ingress into the mine; the company ultimately reduced its annual guidance by 28 percent. Then, in July, a tunnel collapse that killed six at Codelco’s El Teniente mine in Chile forced the company to temporarily halt operations, causing it to reduce its guidance by 30,000 metric tons.
In September, another water ingress incident at Freeport-McMoRan’s (NYSE:FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia killed seven workers, forced the shutdown of operations and deferred significant production through Q4 2025.
These major incidents, along with other minor supply-side disruptions throughout last year, have shortened the timeline for the copper market to enter a supply deficit.
“Really, last year the market was close to equilibrium, but all the charts going forward were this widening supply gap. We’re there now. And last year we had so many major disruptions that it was nowhere near equilibrium,’ said Tiggre.
‘I’m a simple due diligence guy, and I just don’t see the supply,’ he added.
Overall, the panelists agreed that there’s enough copper in the world to meet demand, but the challenge is in getting out of the ground. Discovering deposits will be key to overcoming that issue.
“Copper mines are hidden behind geopolitical boundaries, social issues or undercover. They’re blind, and the easy ones have been found,” Bebek explained to the VRIC crowd.
He cited data showing that since 2015, there haven’t been any copper discoveries of real consequence.
Rule echoed that point, suggesting that it’s largely going to be an issue of investment into exploration. He discussed his history in the industry and noted the underinvestment in copper exploration during that period; however, when funds were spent, copper was uncovered. He also suggested that the easy copper has been found.
“There’s still more to be found, but its going to be found undercover. Let’s just say they’re pretty far off the highway. When we start spending money, we will find copper, but we haven’t started spending money,” he said.
Rule went on to explain that once the industry decides to reinvest in exploration, copper will be revealed, but it will take at least a decade. “There’s no relief in sight in the near term,” he said.
He also highlighted permitting issues and cited the example of the Resolution mine in Arizona, US.
Rule stated that the project has exceptional grades averaging 1.5 percent; however, it’s been stuck in permitting for a massive 28 years. Even with streamlined permitting processes being developed in countries like Canada and the US, companies are still likely to face years-long timelines to bring metal online.
“Even if Trump decides that copper is the most critical mineral, and he’s going to provide subsidies and price floors, and he’s going to guarantee that what could technically be referred to as crappy projects make money, you still have to get them permitted,” Tiggre said. Even with fast-track permitting, he noted that these projects will still require billions in investment, and in the best-case scenario will only save three to five years.
Investor takeaway
The biggest emerging factor is how the industry will respond to the growing copper supply gap.
As Rule pointed out, there doesn’t appear to be a near-term solution.
He also noted that in order for companies to maintain copper production at the current level, the required investment stands at US$250 billion over the next 10 years, which is US$150 billion more than the industry has.
“The problem with that is that maintains current production, a level where copper is in deficit and demand is growing at 2 percent compounded,” Rule explained to the audience.
With copper prices at all-time highs, it may not be time to jump in. But with geopolitical and economic uncertainty still looming over global financial markets, there could be opportunities from volatility.
“All I’m saying is there’s no need to give in to FOMO here. I’m super bullish. Doug Casey taught me to let volatility to be my friend. That’s what I’m thinking this year,” Tiggre said.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
